VENOM 3: THE LAST DANCE | CONCLAVE openings | Superhero genre update | Where we are now | October 25 to 27, 2024 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: October 25 to 27, 2024
1) Venom 3: The Last Dance opening
- This is a weak opening by Marvel’s remarkable standard of success. On average, these 3rd episodes in a superhero series open to $118.4 million and add +36% to the previous opening. These are the biggest sequels in the era of studio franchise filmmaking, bar none, and that’s not an overstatement. 11 of the 13 titles are Marvel productions.
The Venom series was in that elite league through its first two films, and industry tracking services had early projections of a $90m opening. But instead of taking the next leg up that Marvel sequels take, this 3rd opening is down sharply. It's a rare and stunning drop. (In July, Deadpool 3 opened to $211.4m, up +68% over #2’s start.):
- Venom 3's production budget was smartly down-sized to $120 million. With good numbers overseas, the movie is still going to do what Marvel pictures do: play well around the world, generate merchandise and theme-park activity, add value to Disney's streaming services, and make money. This time it's doing it at a modest level.
2) Conclave opening
- This is a very good opening for a year-end Awards drama. The weekend figure is above average for this class of movies, with sensational critics' reviews and an enthusiastic audience score (a B+ CinemaScore).
The goal of the Awards releases is to get established and go on a run — you can see it in the avg. 6.1x domestic multiple. Conclave is the first of these pictures to go wide. It's out early in the 2024 season and it's well-positioned for Awards consideration:
- The Catholic church provides an endless supply of dramatic, cinematic material. It's used effectively and often in horror movies, and this is a serious, high-brow Vatican story. The Catholic theme works particularly well abroad. You cannot have more gravitas than selecting the papal boss.
We'll have more on the Awards pictures as the season heats up.
3) Superhero genre update
- Venom 3 is the fourth of five superhero titles in 2024. The year will finish with Marvel's Kraven the Hunter on December 13, a relatively minor spin-off from the Spider-Man universe. With Joker 2’s crash and this Venom start, the year will limp to the finish line.
2024 will be the smallest year for superheroes since the genre became preeminent at the BO a dozen years ago (we’re not including 2020, which was a pandemic wipe-out for all genres).
2025 just lost Blade 4 to a future release date, leaving four titles next year: Captain America 4 Feb 4, Thunderbolts May 2, Superman/reboot Jul 11, and Fantastic Four/reboot Jul 25. With Thunderbolts, we’ll see how much interest there is in a new superhero story and a new set of characters:
4) Where we are now
- Next week we'll have box office totals for the October period. Total moviegoing is falling back into its sunken state. Joker 2 left a hole and Venom 3 is not filling it. There's little momentum right now.
Wild Robot is appealing to families, and Smile 2 and Terrifier 3 are connecting with the horror crowd. There were several interesting, well-reviewed original productions — Piece By Piece, Saturday Night, The Apprentice — but business has been anemic.
June, July, August and September helped close the box office gap with prior years. Now October is falling back around -34% compared with the pre-pandemic average of 2017+2018+2019. Year-to-date, 2024 will be down around -27%. The business needs a year-end rally.
Gladiator 2, directed by Ridley Scott, November 22
Our last two posts were:
SMILE 2 | GOODRICH openings | Horror movies | Family genre update | October 18 to 20, 2024 weekend here
TERRIFIER 3 | SATURDAY NIGHT | PIECE BY PIECE | MY HERO ACADEMIA: YOU'RE NEXT | THE APPRENTICE | AVERAGE JOE openings | October 11 to 13, 2024 weekend here