TERRIFIER 3 | SATURDAY NIGHT | PIECE BY PIECE | MY HERO ACADEMIA: YOU'RE NEXT | THE APPRENTICE | AVERAGE JOE openings | October 11 to 13, 2024 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: October 11 to 13, 2024
1) Terrifier 3 opening
- This is an outstanding opening for a 3rd episode in an indie horror series. The weekend figure is more than double the average for an indie sequel, with very good critics’ reviews and audience scores (a B CinemaScore).
The series is not on the level of studio horror pictures — those are bigger movies — but the production cost here was an est. $2 million. It's a great payoff to the series:
- The Terrifier films have been released out of order: Terrifier 2 opened in October 2022 to $805,000. Terrifier #1 was made in 2016, became a cult hit on the small screen, and then played in theaters in July 2023 (it made just $124,000 in its first weekend). And now this.
The story features Art the Clown, a sadistic killer. For young horror audiences, the more lunatic, bizarre and ghastly, the better. Art the Clown is all of that.
2) Saturday Night opening
- This is a fair opening for an original comedy drama. These are small, character-driven movies that play better domestically than overseas. Critics' reviews and audience scores are excellent (a B+ CinemaScore).
Comedy dramas have the potential to go on a run when they connect personally and emotionally, when they’re relatable and touching. This story is about the launch of the “Saturday Night Live” TV show — we don't expect that kind of run:
3) Piece By Piece opening
- This is a Lego animated musical biography about the singer-songwriter, rapper, record producer and fashion designer Pharrell Williams. Musical bios and Lego each have a strong track-record on the big screen. This hybrid/combo is not on the level of those individual genres.
Critics' reviews are excellent and audience scores are outstanding (an A CinemaScore). The cost was reasonable — an est. $16 million. The movie is going to play well in ancillary markets and become profitable there:
4) My Hero Academia: You're Next opening
- This is a weak domestic opening for an anime sequel. There have been half a dozen My Hero Academia films and TV shows over the last eight years; this is the third wide theatrical release. In a switch, Japanese producer Toho is releasing the movie in the U.S., instead of Sony-owned Crunchyroll, who handled the first two pictures.
Japan, Korea, and China, followed by parts of Europe and Latin America, are established markets for Japanese anime. The pic has already made $23.5 million in Japan and it should do significant business elsewhere. Worldwide, the film will do well:
5) The Apprentice opening
- This is a weak opening for a political biography. Critics’ reviews are very good, with a fair audience score (a B- CinemaScore). With its contemporary and controversial central character, this looks like a case where reality is enough.
Political biographies do well overseas when they’re about historical figures and the casts are strong — you can see it below. This film is about Donald Trump, and that’s a domestic story:
- Aside from The Apprentice, this political season we've had right-leaning films. The Forge, Reagan, and Am I Racist? have done well; God's Not Dead 3: In God We Trust was a miss. All of these titles are from small distributors who stay connected to their audience and know how to get them out to the theater.
Aside from Michael Moore’s movies, left-leaning audiences do not have a strong tradition of rallying around political films, and that’s the case here.
Note: There is also an inspirational drama called Average Joe opening on 1,699 screens from Fathom Events. It’s another right-leaning political film about a public high school coach who’s fired for taking a knee before each football game to show his commitment to God. He and his wife fight back in the name of religious freedom and freedom of speech.
Three out of four reviews on RT are positive, but there’s no CinemaScore. The opening looks weak, around $1.7 million for three days. (God's Not Dead 3: In God We Trust featured a similar story about a politician fighting for more religion in politics, and it opened similarly.)
- The separation of church and state, which is enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, is a favorite attack issue for right wing political groups. In some parts of the country, they are making progress fighting it.
Overall
- This weekend’s new titles reflect a variety of creative (and political) points of view. If someone said, “Hollywood never does anything different, never takes a chance,” looking at this weekend they’d be wrong.
However, at the box office, business is stalling. The market needed last weekend’s Joker to re-energize moviegoing, but it's crashing. If Folie à Deux made $40m this weekend (the first Joker made $55m in its second weekend), total business would be solid (Folie à Deux will make a paltry $7m this weekend).
For now, we’re waiting for the next rush. Several pictures could reignite the box office: Smile 2 next weekend, and Venom 3 the weekend after that. We'll see.
Conclave, well-reviewed film about a controversial election of a new Pope (currently 89% on Rotten Tomatoes), starring Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, Isabella Rossellini, John Lithgow, and Sergio Castellitto, opens October 25 — awards season is here
