THUNDERBOLTS* | THE SURFER openings | Superheroes as series | Where we are now | May 2 to 4, 2025 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: May 2 to 4, 2025
1) Thunderbolts* opening
- This is a very good opening for a new superhero story. The weekend start is just above average for the genre, but these are among the biggest titles in the history of the business and in this case, average is a big number. Critics' reviews and audience scores are excellent (an A- CinemaScore).
These pictures play extremely well around the world and overseas business should be strong. During the last few months, the U.S. dollar has fallen against most foreign currencies by -5% to -10% — that’s helping all American-financed releases right now:
- Since the pandemic, the average new superhero movie has opened to $55 million, or -41% less than from 2015 to 2019 (both Marvel and DC Comics films). There were creative choices that did not work (Shang-Chi, Eternals and The Flash), and the Spider-Man spin-offs were weak (Morbius, Madame Web and Kraven the Hunter).
This weekend is much better than that, although it’s not in the upper echelon of all superhero launches. In the past, we've had seven pics open to more than $100 million and two to more than $200m. Still, these are powerful titles and Thunderbolts* should get to $500m worldwide.
(*The asterisk on the Thunderbolts title signifies that the famous Avengers team of superheroes are not available right now, and this new team — the Thunderbolts team — will address the current crisis. Now you know.)
Superheroes as series
- When Marvel and DC Comics release a new superhero film, they're not opening a movie, they're opening a series. That's what these pictures are designed to do, every time. It's in their comic book/source material DNA; this is serialized storytelling.
And more than anything else, this is where the genre has declined. We haven't had a new superhero story successfully make it to, and through, a 2nd episode since Ryan Coogler's Black Panther started in 2018. That's a long time ago. Here’s the slump:
- That +47% increase in worldwide BO for a 2nd superhero episode between 2010 and 2019 is a stunning number and a testament to how successful these series were before the pandemic. Most film series start falling at the BO with their follow-up sequel. These films leapt upon their return. Marvel is 100% responsible for that.
If Thunderbolts* finishes with $500 million worldwide, there’s plenty to work with as a series. Audiences and critics like the movie and there are no social or political controversies distracting from the release. $500m isn’t what the genre delivered before the pandemic, but it's very good.
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2) The Surfer opening
- This is a small opening for an indie suspense thriller on a limited number of screens (only 1,085). The logline is: "A man revisits his childhood beach to surf with his son. Humiliated by locals, he becomes entangled in an escalating conflict that pushes him to his limits." Reviews are excellent.
Nicholas Cage's filmography includes: Raising Arizona, Moonstruck, Leaving Las Vegas, Face/Off, Adaptation, Kick-Ass, Pig, and Longlegs, among others. He’s currently filming Madden, a biography about the legendary football coach and personality.
This is another of Cage's smaller films and it’s not connecting. But you have to admire the actor's range and risk-taking — he makes everything he's in better:
3) Where we are now
- The summer moviegoing season starts early — like right now — and it's off to a good start. 2025 is following the same pattern we saw last year: A weak first quarter, then the box office woke up in April — this year Minecraft and Sinners did the waking up.
The May and summer calendar is loaded with broad-appeal, mainstream titles, including a lot of popular sequels, remakes and family entertainment. Final Destination, Mission: Impossible and Lilo & Stitch/live-action arrive during the next several weeks.
- On Wednesday we'll have final April box office numbers. Going into April, the year-to-date domestic BO was down approx. -8.4% versus 2024, but by the end of the month it was up +14.0%. That's good, and we expect more improvement during the summer, but we're still well below pre-pandemic BO levels.
Our last two posts were:
THE WEDNESDAY CHARTS | The current state of theatrical film franchises | April 30, 2025 here
THE ACCOUNTANT 2 | STAR WARS: EPISODE III - REVENGE OF THE SITH re-release | UNTIL DAWN openings | Where we are now | April 25 to 27, 2025 weekend here