NOSFERATU | A COMPLETE UNKNOWN | BABYGIRL | THE FIRE INSIDE openings | December 27 to 29, 2024 Christmas weekend

Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary

Dec 29, 2024

1) Nosferatu opening

- This is an excellent opening for a new horror film, on the level of a horror series launch. It’s a remake of the 1922 German Dracula classic, but for young horror fans the story is fresh. Critics' reviews are outstanding, with a lukewarm audience score that’s typical of the genre (a B- CinemaScore).

When you look at the 5-day start from Wednesday to Sunday, the numbers are particularly good (an est. $39 million 5-day). This picture has the horror crowd to itself through the remainder of the holidays:

- Nosferatu finishes a prolific year for the genre. The volume of horror titles jumped by +33%, and that's a reflection of the attention focused on these pictures. This is a healthy piece of the business, serving the important 15-to-34 year-old age group.

2) A Complete Unknown opening

- This is a solid 3-day start for a musical biography. The weekend figure is roughly average for the genre, and we consider that $12.6m average a good number. Critics' reviews are excellent, with a great audience score (an A CinemaScore). The 5-day opening from Wednesday to Sunday is an est. $24 million — that’s strong.

The film is going to be the dominant older-skewing title for the holiday season. This audience takes a little more time to get to a movie, and that should buoy the numbers over the next month. With many top-10 and awards mentions, it’s set up to perform well through January:

- Musical biographies continue to work. Great music is loaded with the emotion of its time. It deepens the storytelling. When a filmmaker tells the artist's story well, these movies connect personally. They're uniquely cinematic and belong on the big screen.

We saw it when Straight Outta Compton/NWA opened domestically to $60.2m in 2015, and then Bohemian Rhapsody/Queen finished with an extraordinary $903.7 million in 2018. That Queen biography held the BO record not just for musical bios, but for all original, non-series films, until Oppenheimer surpassed it in 2023.
- Recently there was Elvis, Elton John and Bob Marley. Over the next year, we'll have Better Man/Robbie Williams, Michael Jackson and Bruce Springsteen. There will be more.

3) Babygirl opening

- This is a soft opening for a steamy romance. Critics like the film, but the audience response is lukewarm (a B- CinemaScore). Steaminess is a plus in romances, including a kink or two as part of the story, but this is not coming together.

International business should be good, helped by the A+ cast (Nicole Kidman and Antonio Banderas):

- This story makes the older and more powerful character — Kidman’s character — the submissive one. That’s a reversal of the typical narrative and different from what audiences have rushed to see in the past.

4) The Fire Inside opening

- This is a small opening for a sports drama. It's a true story about a little-known American boxer training for the 2012 Olympics (Claressa "T-Rex" Shields). Critics' reviews and audience scores are outstanding (an A CinemaScore).

The genre has limited foreign potential — that will be the case here:

- Sports dramas break through and cross over when the subject is iconic and legendary (Jackie Robinson in 42), or when a high-profile cast adds to interest (Ben Affleck and Matt Damon in Air).

With a modest budget of under $12 million, a theatrical release like this is going to increase the movie’s ancillary value and the film should recover its costs from domestic business alone.

Overall

- The current weekend is generating big, although not record-breaking box office. Holdover business is terrific. The next 7 days should be excellent as well. With the school holidays in full effect, Mufasa: The Lion King, in particular, is on fire.

Traditionally, the first weekend in January does not have a new wide release — audiences are still feasting on the holiday lineup — so this is when we take our annual break.

- Have a fantastic new year and thank you for reading this newsletter.

Our last two posts were:
SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3 | MUFASA: THE LION KING | HOMESTEAD openings | Where we are now | December 20 to 22, 2024 weekend here
KRAVEN THE HUNTER | THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM openings | Notes on 2024 moviegoing | December 13 to 15, 2024 weekend here