SONIC THE HEDGEHOG 3 | MUFASA: THE LION KING | HOMESTEAD openings | Where we are now | December 20 to 22, 2024 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: December 20 to 22, 2024
1) Sonic the Hedgehog 3 opening
- This is an excellent opening for the 3rd episode in an animation/live-action hybrid series. The estimated weekend figure is around triple the average for the genre, and it's roughly even with the last Sonic opening. These are great numbers.
As noted, we're at the start of a 17-day window of prime playing time. Critics' reviews and audience scores are outstanding (an A CinemaScore). The movie is going to far out-earn Sonic #2 (it finished with $405.4m worldwide in Apr 2022):
- Over the last five years, Sonic has grown into a coveted five-quadrant movie: its audience includes younger and older females, younger and old males, and families. The film has the right comedic actor at the center of it, Jim Carrey, with a popular new foil and partner-in-crime, Keanu Reeves. The series is doing everything right.
Hybrids continue to be a good idea. IF was the most recent — it grossed a solid $190.3m worldwide last May. The live-action/animation combo tickles the imagination and provides endless visual humor. The Smurfs, Ted, Alvin and the Chipmunks, Peter Rabbit, Paddington — all successful hybrids. (Paddington 3 is due next Feb 12.)
2) Mufasa: The Lion King opening
- This is a weak domestic start by Disney’s standard for a live-action episode adapted from animation. So far, the international openings have been good, and better than the domestic numbers. There have been 12 Disney live-action versions of their animation classics (counting both real live-action, as well as life-like animation such as Mufasa).
The opening is well below Disney’s average, and down substantially from the previous Lion King start, which was a record-setter. This a prequel story, and prequels start slower — this is slow.
Audiences like the movie (an A- CinemaScore); family animation has shown excellent holding strength this year; and with kids going on school break on Monday, the picture should have a very good run now. In June 2023, Pixar's Elemental opened to $29.6m domestically and finished with $496.4m worldwide. This story is not finished yet:
3) Homestead opening
- This is a fair opening for an inspirational action drama, at somewhat below average levels for the genre. Critics' reviews are weak, which is par for these pics. The audience score is good-not-great (a B CinemaScore). These productions do very little business overseas — you can see it in the numbers.
The inspirational audience — religious and conservative — remains underserved. The Best Christmas Pageant Ever just finished with a very good $40m domestic. Again, the movie will benefit from holiday playing time:
- The storyline is: "A former green beret and other survivors take refuge inside an elaborate compound when an attack on America leaves the world in chaos." Perfect for the holidays.
(BTW, the $8.1m average for an inspirational action opening is higher than for an inspirational pure drama — that’s $5.3m. This is a tougher film. Inspirational dramas usually involve God intervening to help with a personal or medical situation. This is a war story where physical safety is at stake. The trailer is here.)
4) Where we are now
- In three days, on Christmas day, the remaining holiday wide releases will open and everything will be out (A Complete Unknown/Bob Dylan, Nosferatu/remake of the German horror classic, and Babygirl/Nicole Kidman all start on the 25th).
We like this year’s calendar, with Christmas and New Year on Wednesdays. Moviegoing is closing the year well, with something for every demographic group and taste. Lots of big, broad-appeal, escapist entertainment.
- The Awards movies are also out now, in time to qualify for 2024 consideration. There's no sure favorite, but there's an outstanding mix of titles (alphabetically): Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Perez, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance, Wicked, and more. Another good list is here.
Our last two posts are below, with our 2024 year-end summary notes in last week’s Kraven post:
KRAVEN THE HUNTER | THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE WAR OF THE ROHIRRIM openings | Notes on 2024 moviegoing | December 13 to 15, 2024 weekend here
PUSHPA: THE RULE - PART 2 | Y2K | WEREWOVLES openings | November and year-to-date 2024 box office update | December 6 to 8, 2024 weekend here