HERE | ABSOLUTION openings | Original non-series films in 2024 | October and year-to-date 2024 box office update | November 1 to 3, 2024 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: November 1 to 3, 2024
1) Here opening
- This is a weak opening for an original drama. The weekend figure is below average for the genre, with a lukewarm audience score (a B- CinemaScore) and flat critics’ reviews. To work, this kind of story needs to connect emotionally and powerfully. In this case, the audience isn't moved on that level and there isn’t enough to recommend:
- There's a lot of talent involved in the picture — Robert Zemeckis directing a script by Eric Roth, starring Tom Hanks and Robin Wright. The concept is ambitious: telling multiple stories that happened over decades at one location and in one house. With a production budget of approx. $50 million, the release will end in red ink.
- Please see below for more about original, non-series pictures.
2) Absolution opening
- This opening is consistent with Liam Neeson's post-pandemic crime thrillers. Mr. Neeson’s thrillers have declined at the box office since 2019 and they continue to fall:
- This is the actor's 19th wide release crime thriller. Liam Neeson still brings value to these films, but it's realized in ancillary revenue on the small screen, not on the big screen. The production cost was an est. $30 million. Absolution can still break even on worldwide digital, streaming and TV income.
3) Original non-series films in 2024
- The number of original, non-series wide releases in 2024 is now 79, with a few more coming before the end of the year. That number has recovered from the pandemic, but at least a dozen of the titles have been small releases that played for a couple of weeks, or sometimes just one week, to grab a little box office and then move on to ancillary distribution.
In terms of total box office, 2024 is going to be a soft year for original, non-series films. The movies haven't been as broadly popular as in recent years — you can see it in the chart.
Several of the remaining pics have the potential to move into the top-5 for 2024, like the Bob Dylan biography:
- Note: In 2023, we categorized Barbie as a franchise series film. It was a new story, but the project had the trappings of a franchise before its release, and then it hit. At some point we'll hear from Barbie or Ken again, whether it's three years from now or in 15 years. It’s a series.
If you still want to call Barbie an original picture, that would add another +$1.45 billion to the 2023 total. Some consider 2023 the year of the original production — it was in terms of creativity, and it was refreshing.
4) October and year-to-date 2024 box office update
- Following three and a half months of good domestic box office, the October period was down -31.7% compared with the pre-pandemic average (the average of October 2017/2018/2019). It was down -11.1% compared with last year.
Several movies have performed well for their intended audiences: The Wild Robot for families, and Smile 2 and Terrifier 3 for horror fans. But the box office is driven by big hits, and when Joker 2 crashed and Venom 3 underperformed, October fell:
- Year-to-date, the BO is now down -26.3% compared with pre-pandemic, and down -12.1% compared with last year. Both of those numbers have come a long way back from May, but the deficits remain. As always, we are interested in returning to pre-pandemic business levels, not just last year’s levels.
Looking ahead, November
- This weekend and next weekend are very quiet, then business will pick up with Red One on November 15, followed by a strong lineup over Thanksgiving — Gladiator 2 and Wicked Part 1 on Nov 22, and Moana 2 on Nov 27.
Meanwhile, the Awards movies continue to roll out, including Anora, Emilia Pérez, and A Real Pain.
- Historically, November ranks as the #5 moviegoing month, behind July, December, June, and March. It's going to take a giant November and December to close the gap further with pre-pandemic BO levels.
[Note: For our monthly BO calculations, we take the complete weeks of each month (each week runs Friday to Thursday) and we line up the same weeks across the years, so we are comparing the same days/same weeks/same day-mix, like apples-to-apples. There are different ways to do this and you might see slightly different industry figures — this is how we like to do it.]
Our last two posts were:
VENOM 3: THE LAST DANCE | CONCLAVE openings | Superhero genre update | Where we are now | October 25 to 27, 2024 weekend here
SMILE 2 | GOODRICH openings | Horror movies | Family genre update | October 18 to 20, 2024 weekend here