WICKED PART 1 | GLADIATOR 2 openings | Legacy sequels | Where we are now | November 22 to 24, 2024 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: November 22 to 24, 2024
1) Wicked Part 1 opening
- This is a sensational opening for the start of a new adventure fantasy series. The weekend before Thanksgiving is a prime window to launch the industry's biggest series, for example Harry Potter, Frozen, and Twilight. Until now, none has opened to more than $100 million. This weekend number is comfortably breaking that record.
Critics' reviews and audience scores are superb (an A CinemaScore). Audiences are making the singing and costume experience their own. With the 4-day Thanksgiving holiday ahead, the movie should finish at around a 4x multiple (4x this opening). It's a juggernaut:
- Music is an enormous asset here. Whether it's dramatic, comedic or biographical, great film music leaves a lasting impression — audiences take it with them. Wicked’s music is going to help drive repeat business through the holidays.
The only limitation we see is overseas, which started last week. So far, the foreign openings have not been on the level of this domestic opening. Sometimes a domestic smash can elevate a movie overseas, but that's not happening. The musical stage show and this cast are not as well known abroad as they are in the U.S. — that’s contributing to the slow start overseas.
2) Gladiator 2 opening
- This is an excellent opening for the sequel to the Academy’s Best Picture in 2000. The first film was nominated for 12 Oscars and won five. This weekend’s figure is approaching double #1's start, on top of strong international debuts last week.
Critics' reviews and audience scores are good, but not on the level of the first movie (#1 had an A CinemaScore, #2 has a B). Business is still excellent:
Legacy sequels
- During the last 18 months, we've had five successful legacy sequels: Top Gun: Maverick ($1.5 billion worldwide, after a 35 year break), Wonka ($634m, after 18 years), Beetlejuice Beetlejuice ($451m, after 36 years), Twisters ($371m, after 27 years), and now Gladiator (after 24 years).
The sequels enjoy built-in awareness and interest, but they need a creative reason to exist or audiences will reject them, as they did with The Crow (after 30 years), The Color Purple (38 years), Willard (32 years), House Party (19 years), The Odd Couple (30 years), Shaft (19 years), Rollerball (26 years), Charlie's Angels (16 years) — the list goes on.
- It can take years to put these films together, to develop an interesting story; to write and rewrite the screenplay; to wait for a director or an actor/actress who starred the last time, or to cast a new actor who’s ready for the role (Paul Mescal, Timothée Chalamet, Glen Powell). Time passes, good ideas and talent come and go.
Fortunately, it doesn't matter how long it takes; time does not appear to weigh on the box office results. If the idea is good, it’ll work now or later, whenever it’s ready:
3) Where we are now
- This weekend's two strong openers are invigorating a box office that fell apart after a good summer. October and the first 21 days of November have been weak. With the addition of Disney’s Moana 2 on Wednesday, box office records will be in play over the Thanksgiving weekend. These are three big-screen movies that entertain using all the power of sight & sound. That is what brings audiences to the multiplex.
The first half of December is traditionally a relatively quiet stretch. After that, Disney's Mufasa: The Lion King/live-action, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and A Complete Unknown/Bob Dylan will close the year — it’s a strong finish.
- By the second quarter of next year, the production pipeline and the release schedule should be moving past the long-term effects of the labor and pandemic disruptions. It takes that long. Next year we’re looking for more consistency at the box office. For now, it’s very good news for the industry.
Our last two posts were:
RED ONE opening | All the small wide releases | November 15 to 17, 2024 weekend here
HERETIC | THE BEST CHRISTMAS PAGEANT EVER openings | November moviegoing | November 8 to 10, 2024 weekend here