TOP GUN: MAVERICK opening | BOB'S BURGERS opening | Rotten Tomatoes now | May 27 to 29, 2022 Memorial Day weekend
Opening weekend box office figures, charts and commentary
The current weekend: May 27 to May 29, 2022 Memorial Day
1) Top Gun: Maverick opening
- This is an outstanding 3-day opening. Top Gun: Maverick is not the first action film to return after a long layoff, but for this genre, you can see below there's very little difference in the box office performance whether the follow-up arrives sooner (fewer than five years following the first movie), or later (more than 20 years following). The source material remains strong, the execution is excellent, and Tom Cruise makes it work impeccably well. The weekend figure is more than double and a half the average for an action 2nd episode.
- In 1986, Top Gun made half its money overseas. At that time 36 years ago, the foreign markets were much less developed than they are now. Action is a strong genre internationally, and Tom Cruise is particularly popular around the world. For Maverick, once all markets have played (not all countries are opening this weekend), we expect over half of worldwide box office to come from foreign, and it would be more if the film were going to be released in China and Russia/Ukraine:
- In the chart above, note the 1,028 screen release and the 21.6 domestic multiple for Top Gun 1 in 1986 — old school!
2) The Bob's Burgers Movie opening
- This is a good opening for a TV-based animation launch. TV-based animation is generally the smallest type of theatrical animation, notwithstanding a handful of hits like Alvin and the Chipmunks, Mr. Peabody & Sherman, and Scooby-Doo. These films do not travel as well overseas as their counterparts. Recently, family business has been improving, not just on opening weekends, but the films are also holding well over time. We're going to get another important measure of family moviegoing when Lightyear opens three weeks from now:
3) Rotten Tomatoes now
- If you follow Rotten Tomatoes, you might think that we're currently in the midst of a run of truly superior movies: Jujutsu Kaisen 98 Tomatometer score, Top Gun: Maverick 97, Everything Everywhere All at Once 96, X 96, The Northman 88, The Bad Guys 87, Bob's Burgers 86, and Jackass Forever 86, et al. As good as they may be, we’re not on that run.
- The improvement that we saw in Rotten Tomatoes’ scores from 2011 to 2021, from an average of 44.7 to 63.7, is continuing so far in 2022. In fact, when 2022 is finished, the average score will be considerably higher than it is now because it will include the well-reviewed, awards-nominated films released at the end of the year:
- The rise in review scores coincides with Warner Bros.’ acquisition of Rotten Tomatoes in 2010, and then Universal’s acquisition of a 75% majority stake in 2017. Whatever the explanation for the change, the scores are fairer than they were pre-2019. But if 60 is the dividing line between a shiny red tomato and an ugly green splat, then the average should be as close to 60 as possible. Inflation is hitting the Tomatometer.
- Next week we’ll have May domestic box office figures to compare with May 2019.