THOR: LOVE AND THUNDER opening | Marvel and DC Comics | Moviegoing and recessions | July 8 to 10, 2022 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: July 8 to 10, 2022
1) Thor: Love and Thunder opening
- This is another excellent Marvel opening for a series that started in 2011 and has grown with each episode. The weekend estimate is close to double the average for a 4th episode superhero movie, and it’s approx. +14% bigger than the previous Thor opening, when average for opening a sequel like this is down -17%.
- Marvel sets the standard here, with nine series of three episodes or more, and at least seven of them still in play. Superheroes continue to lead the charge back to theaters: first Venom 2 ($507m worldwide), then Spider-Man: No Way Home ($1.9 billion), then Batman ($771m), then Dr. Strange 2 ($953m), now Thor — all smashes, by any pre-pandemic standard.
- Thor 3 was extremely well reviewed. Reviews are positive but not as strong for Love and Thunder, which is not uncommon — you can see the dip in the review average for 4th episodes, as these stories start to show a little wear.
- As noted, foreign business is roiling for all movies right now, the result of a strong U.S. dollar (one year ago, a Euro was worth $1.18, today it is worth $1.02); the closure of Russia and Ukraine (Russia was the #9 ranking international market for U.S. movies in 2019); and irregularity in China (Thor 3 finished with $112m in China, Love and Thunder has yet to be dated there). Still, this movie is going to make a lot of money:
- DC Comics has the Shazam! spin-off Black Adam in October, and then Shazam! 2 arrives two months later in December. DC's other budding superheroes — Suicide Squad and Wonder Woman — had strong starts, but fell apart creatively on their second episodes, and they were simultaneously sacrificed for HBO during the pandemic as part of the Warner Bros. Popcorn Project.
2) Moviegoing and recessions
- If, in fact, the U.S. goes into a recession, we’ve seen that moviegoing holds up well during adverse economic conditions. Most recently, during the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, the total domestic box office was steady during the first year (off a negligible -.3% in 2008), and then it grew significantly during the second year (up +10% in 2009), in spite of high unemployment.
- Unemployment is low right now at 3.6%, and even with rising interest rates, the Fed is unlikely to let it get much higher than 5%, and certainly not back to the 9%+ level of the Great Recession. Bottom line: a recession, if we have one, should not pose a threat to moviegoing. Moviegoing is steady through all kinds of economic conditions (just not pandemics):
- Between 2018 and 2020, the domestic ticket price remained flat at approx. $9.16, and then it increased to $9.57 in 2021. It will increase again this year with variable pricing for the big movies, but it still represents an excellent value compared with other out-of-home entertainment like a sports game, a show, or a concert. And those $175+ monthly TV bills for all the services, or $2,100 a year? Expensive. That is going to get squeezed in a downturn — it’s already happening.
- Moviegoing is a habit, and the habit is forming again. With the current run of strong films, regular and frequent moviegoers — those who attend once a month or more — have a reason to return again, and again. They see more trailers, talk about the films, and look forward to the next one. There are still pockets of the business that have not healed, but momentum is positive and building now.