THE CHOSEN: SEASON 3 opening | THE MENU opening | SHE SAID opening | GLASS ONION next week | November 18 to 20, 2022 weekend

Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary

The current weekend: November 18 to 20, 2022

1) The Chosen: Season 3 opening

The Chosen: Season 3

- This is the theatrical release of the first two episodes of the 3rd season of the streaming series The Chosen. By Christian drama film standards, it’s a very good opening and more than double The Chosen Christmas special that was released theatrically in December 2021. The Chosen series has been crowdfunded (they raised $40 million during the first season). Very few critics are covering these movies:

2) The Menu opening

The Menu

- This is a good opening for an original horror comedy. The weekend figure is a bit above average for the genre and reviews are excellent, setting the movie up for the Thanksgiving weekend starting Thursday. There are not a lot of horror comedies — this is a strong production and the international cast should help The Menu in foreign markets:

3) She Said opening

She Said

- This is a weak opening for a year-end drama. Reviews are excellent. Thus far, the year-end, awards-contending dramas have performed sluggishly at the box office, although it’s early and we’re not into the prime holiday moviegoing season yet, with awards announcements and top-10 lists still coming:

- These are the awards-contending titles currently in wide release, with their box office totals up to/before this weekend:

• Banshees of Inisherin $15.3m worldwide

• Till $8.3m ww

• Tár $4.7m ww

• Armageddon Time $2.9m ww

4) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery next weekend

- Next weekend, Netflix will release the Knives Out sequel Glass Onion for one week on around 600 screens before premiering it on the streaming service on December 23.  Netflix has said they will not disclose the box office results.

Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

- Knives Out was a revelation — the kind of movie that reminds audiences of how good a genre can be.  It opened to $26.3m, earned a 97 Rotten Tomatoes score and A- Cinemascore, and played for weeks to a strong 6.2x domestic multiple.  For this kind of series, the follow-up film generally opens better than the first film, as audiences rush back for more. But then the follow-up slows down and the two films end up with similar box office totals.

- For Glass Onion, the genre poses some challenge to maintain box office strength over multiple episodes. The novelty wears off faster for a crime whodunnit than, say, for a superhero or horror series. But Rian Johnson is an enormous talent.  Early reviews are sensational. Knives Out over-performed the first time, and Glass Onion was poised to build on that success. This is what Glass Onion would do with a typical wide release:

- Glass Onion reportedly cost $40m to make, and Netflix paid $450m to own it plus an additional sequel.  Was it a good investment?  That depends on how Netflix allocates their content costs.  Is it as good as making $300m at the box office with a theatrical release, and then premiering exclusively on Netflix?  No, it’s not.

- As we've said since March 2020, movies generate the greatest value when they start with a successful theatrical release, and then go to streaming.  Warner Bros. and Paramount have a lot of experience with theatrical and streaming, and recently they have been speaking directly to this point.  Don't take our word.  Take their word.  They know.

Knives Out

- For Netflix, this is another interesting try to somehow bring the magic of the big screen to their service. They’ve made big new movies with A+ casts that look like they belong in a theater. They’ve bought two high-profile sequels to an established theatrical hit. These films walk and talk like a theatrical release, but without a $50m to $100m marketing push and millions of strangers paying $11 to sit in a dark room, experience the film, and then talk about it with their friends, the result is television viewing, without the value that comes from moviegoing.