THE BAD GUYS opening | THE NORTHMAN opening | THE UNBEARABLE WEIGHT OF MASSIVE TALENT opening | Pandemic and moviegoing | April 22 to 24, 2022 weekend
Opening weekend box office figures, chrats and commentary
The current weekend: April 22 to 24, 2022
1) The Bad Guys opening
- This is a good opening for DreamWorks Animation. DreamWorks has a strong track record making original, single-episode hits, and they've launched 12 films that turned into juggernaut series, although none in the last five years. This opening is above average for a single-episode DreamWorks movie, and it ranks among the top animation openings during the pandemic, with Encanto ($27.2m, Nov 2021) and Sing 2 ($22.3m, Dec 2021).
- The Bad Guys should have a good run now. Reviews are excellent and audience scores are outstanding. New family competition will be sparse during the next two months — the pandemic-delayed Bob's Burger is currently scheduled for May 27, and Lightyear arrives on June 17 (the Toy Story spin-off):
- Family moviegoing was certainly rocked by the pandemic, but families are returning now. We just saw it with Sonic the Hedgehog 2, which was helped by its broad demographics. We've also seen two animated movies open at soft levels, but then settle in and play to terrific domestic multiples (Sing 2 finished at x7.3, Raya and the Last Dragon at x6.5). We’re still far from pre-pandemic levels (Incredibles 2 opened to $182.7m in Nov 2018, Frozen 2 to $130.3m in Nov 2019, Toy Story 4 to $120.9m in Jun 2019), but The Bad Guys is a new story — this is a good start. Lightyear will be an important marker in mid-June.
2) The Northman opening
- This is a fair opening for an R-rated action adventure. These movies lead with their grittiness and violence — that’s their strength, and the R-rating is not a box office liability compared with PG-13 and PG action adventures (R-rated action adventures are better reviewed and play a bit longer; PG-13 and PG do a bit better overseas). Reviews are excellent, but with a budget of around $75m, The Northman will struggle to recover costs.
- This is another genre that is well produced on TV now. In this theatrical market, how well would The Revenant do (opened to $38.9m in January 2016), or Troy ($46.9m in May 2004), or Gladiator ($34.8m in May 2000) — all R-rated period action adventures. Those movies featured top male stars in the leading role, but they would be under greater pressure today. Beyond their impressive visual effects, the action is earthbound and human-scale, not sci-fi or superhero, and today that's a limitation:
3) The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent opening
- This is a fair opening for a low budget original action comedy (cost was around $30m). Like Everything Everywhere All at Once two weeks ago, Unbearable Weight is stretching the genre. Big action comedies showed strength before the pandemic (Bad Boys for Life finished with $426.5m worldwide in Jan 2020, Ocean's 8 $297.7m in Jun 2018), and it continued during the pandemic with Free Guy ($331.5m in Aug 2021). But this is a different movie than a buddy chase or an ensemble heist — it’s meta. Reviews are outstanding. The business needs this kind of originality to stay healthy:
4) Pandemic
- After hitting a recent low on April 3, new Covid cases in the U.S. are rising again; however, Covid hospital admissions remain low. At this point, people are setting aside concern and going about their business, including going to the movies. It's possible we'll have another surge later in the spring or summer. Hopefully, it will not derail what has been steady, very positive improvement at the box office. Next weekend we'll have April moviegoing numbers: