TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES: MUTANT MAYHEM opening | THE MEG: THE TRENCH opening | The labor strikes, the release schedule and BO | August 4 to 6, 2023 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: August 4 to 6, 2023
1) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 7 opening
- This is a very good opening for an animated film that appeals to more than just families. The 3-day number is better than average for the genre, with outstanding critics reviews and audience scores. The cost was a reasonable est. $70m:
Overseas, the last Ninja Turtles animated sequel in 2007 was soft, but the more recent live-action movies have done well (62.6% of their BO came from foreign). China and Russia have been important markets for the Turtles, and they pose a challenge this time.
- 2023 continues to be a bounce-back year for animation. Three of the biggest films so far — Super Mario, Spider-Verse and Ninja Turtles — started as live-action productions before turning to animation. That opens up creative possibilities and broadens the appeal demographically; that’s happening here. It works.
The remaining animation in 2023 includes: Strays/R-rated (8/18), PAW Patrol 2 (9/29), Trolls 3/DreamWorks (11/17), Wish/Disney (11/22), and Migration/Illumination (12/22).
2) The Meg 2 opening
- This is a good domestic opening for a creature/monster 2nd episode, although the drop from the first film’s start shows the series is wearing thin locally. U.S. reviews are poor, and audience ratings are soft. But foreign is where The Meg makes its money, and the overseas openings are strong — you can see it below:
These movies generally consist of, "When does the creature get here, how much damage is it going to do — bring it," followed by mayhem. This creature doesn't have the personality of a King Kong, or the versatility of the Jurassic dinosaurs, but it’s terrifying, and everyone understands that around the world.
The film cost between $125m and $150m to make, and it was co-produced with a Chinese partner. The first picture made $153m in China, and with the local partner’s marketing push, #2 should approach that.
3) The labor strikes, the release schedule and BO
There are a couple of items we want to get back to, but the Writers and Actors strikes are front and center. Here are a few numbers on that:
- Thus far, five titles have moved out of 2023 because of the strikes:
Kraven the Hunter - moved from Oct 6 to Aug 30, 2024, during the last 11 years Marvel new character/series launches have averaged $475m worldwide BO;
Ghostbusters 5 - moved from Dec 20 to Mar 29, 2024, each of the last two Ghostbusters finished with just over $200m worldwide;
Challengers - moved from Sept 15 to Apr 26, 2024, starring Zendaya at the center of a love triangle set in the tennis world;
Drive Away Dolls - moved from Sept 22 to Feb 23, 2024, Ethan Coen's solo directing project with a strong cast including Matt Damon;
White Bird - moved from Aug 25 and is undated, loosely follows after the successful family drama Wonder ($305.9m worldwide, in Nov 2017).
- In total, these movies represent an est. $800m worldwide box office, plus that much in ancillary business. If any of the pics were to connect and go on a long run, the total would be higher.
- Before the strikes, we estimated that 2023 would finish with approx. 130 domestic wide releases, including 54 franchise series titles, which are solid numbers. We believed 2023 was on track to finish with $24.08 billion, or down approx. -15% from 2019/2018/2017’s annual average.
Here is what 2023 looks like without the five films. When the strikes are resolved, it's possible other wide releases will move into 2023. Right now, the five movies will shave an est. -2.5 percentage points off the recovery:
Overall, the release delays will hold back an est. $1.6 billion from the motion picture economy for the next three to ten months, and that number will grow if more titles are pushed into 2024. Moviegoing will recover — again — but for now, this is a setback for every part of the business.