TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERAS TOUR opening | October 13 to 15, 2023 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: October 13 to 15, 2023
1) TAYLOR SWIFT: THE ERAS TOUR opening
- This is a sensational domestic opening. Early estimates projected a bigger opening weekend, but this is still three times the previous biggest concert movie start in the history of the business — these are giant numbers.
Until now, the biggest films domestically were Justin Bieber: Never Say Never (it finished with $73.0m) and Michael Jackson's This Is It ($72.1m). Taylor Swift is passing those titles after one weekend.
But Michael Jackson played very well abroad and ranks #1 worldwide with $261.2m (it opened four months after Mr. Jackson's death). With less BO overseas, it's not clear whether Taylor Swift will catch that total.
THE ERAS TOUR’s release pattern is unconventional — it will play only on Thursdays to Sundays. We're going to assume the BO will double from here, but there’s no precedent for this; we’re in uncharted territory:
- Taylor Swift had her first Top-40 hit 17 years ago in 2006 when she was 16 years old. She's 33 now. Swift's fans have grown up with her. That's broadening the audience demographically — one third of the early opening weekend crowd is 25 years or older.
- Taylor Swift’s talent and persona are striking a powerful chord, and the film captures it. This is Taylor Swift’s time, and it’s going to be looked back at as a significant moment in pop culture history.
The impact
- The film happened quickly — the release was announced just six weeks ago, at the end of August. Movies that do this kind of business generally take 18-to-24 months to plan, produce and release, and usually after years of creative development. This was fast.
If the film finishes with $250m to $300m worldwide, it's going to fill some of the hole left by the six titles that moved out of 2023 because of the strikes. We believe those films were worth an estimated $1.6 billion of worldwide BO. Beyoncé's concert film on December 1, Renaissance: A Film By Beyoncé, is going to help as well.
But bear in mind, the two concert films are patching a threadbare release schedule. They are very much appreciated, but there's still a strike on and the release schedule continues to be thin. Challenges remain.
- Next weekend has Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon, another extremely important movie for very different reasons.