SPEAK NO EVIL | AM I RACIST? | THE KILLER'S GAME | GOD'S NOT DEAD: IN GOD WE TRUST openings | Horror genre update | September 13 to 15, 2024 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
Note: There’s a lot to cover this weekend — we’ll be as brief as possible…
The current weekend: September 13 to 15, 2024
1) Speak No Evil opening
- This is a solid opening for a new horror film. The weekend figure is above average for a single episode picture, and below the level of a horror series launch. It’s average for a Blumhouse release. Critics' reviews and audience scores are excellent (a B+ CinemaScore).
Blumhouse is extremely disciplined with their budgets, rarely going over $20 million. Speak No Evil cost a reasonable est. $15 million; in the end, the movie should be comfortably profitable:
- 2024 is an off year for Blumhouse. There were two misses (Imaginary finished with $44m worldwide, AfrAId opened to $3.7m two weeks ago), plus Speak No Evil. 2023 was a giant year for the company: Five Nights at Freddy's ($292m worldwide), Insidious 5 ($189m), M3gan ($180m), and Exorcist: Believer ($136m).
Currently there are seven Blumhouse titles in 2025: Wolf Man (Jan 17), Woman in the Yard (Mar 28), Drop (Apr 11), M3gan 2.0 (Jun 27), Insidious 6 (Aug 25), Black Phone 2 (Oct 17), and Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (Dec 5) — that's impressive.
Blumhouse sets a high standard for the genre. In a good year, dollar-for-dollar, Blumhouse might be the most profitable production company in the industry.
2) Am I Racist? opening
- This is a good opening for a political documentary. The film is a skeptical, comedic look at racism and anti-racism from conservative political commentator Matt Walsh. Political movies are designed to rally the faithful — in this case, people who believe we have too much political correctness. It’s working, in good numbers.
Critics generally ignore these types of movies (currently there are only four reviews posted on Rotten Tomatoes), but audiences are enthusiastic (an A CinemaScore). Political films do very little business overseas — they are about, and for, the domestic U.S. audience:
3) The Killer's Game opening
- This is a weak opening for an original action comedy. These are big movies and this start is well below par for the genre. Audiences like the movie (a B+ CinemaScore), while critics' reviews are poor.
This release appears to be designed to help ancillary distribution later, while spending as little marketing money as possible in the meantime. The film should play well internationally, assuming it’s released in every market:
4) God's Not Dead: In God We Trust opening
- This is a weak opening for an inspirational, faith-based sequel. There are very few faith-based sequels. The stories simply do not hold up in their return — you can see it below. God's Not Dead is the only inspirational story that's generated more than two episodes; this is #4. The series hit the wall with #3.
The film is about a reverend who runs for office to bring more faith, not less faith, into public policy. As with Am I Racist?, critics aren’t reviewing it (there are only two reviews on RT). For this movie, there’s no audience score:
The U.S. election season
- With U.S. election-year campaigning at full strength, it’s time for political films. This weekend’s two right-leaning openers join Reagan, which is having a strong run in its third week.
On October 11, we'll have The Apprentice from Briarcliff Entertainment, a portrait of Donald Trump's early years, currently with a 77 Rotten Tomatoes score. Trump's attorneys sent a cease & desist letter to the filmmakers in late May to block the release (Variety), but it's moving forward anyway.
4) Horror genre update
- As noted, this year currently has 28 horror wide releases on the calendar, up sharply from 19 last year. Those 19 films generated $2 billion in worldwide box office in 2023, or 10.2% of Hollywood’s worldwide receipts — it was the best year since 2019.
We see 2024 finishing with approx. $1.53 billion. That's a solid number. However, the movies have been inconsistent. Ten of the 24 horror openings so far this year have been under $5 million. Smaller films are jumping in, Blumhouse is having an off year, and not everything is working:
- The genre's strength continues to be cost. These are inexpensive productions that pack a wallop on the big screen for the 15-to-34 audience. A sold-out dark room… moviegoers jumping, screaming and having a good time with their friends… there's a new title every other week — horror is a major success story for the industry.
The Substance opens on Sept 20. It currently has a 92 Rotten Tomatoes score, stars Demi Moore, Margaret Qualley and Dennis Quaid, and was produced by Working Title for MUBI. When it played in competition at Cannes it received a standing ovation that lasted between nine and 13 minutes. Someone forgot to start the stopwatch — it's controversial.
Logline: “Have you ever dreamt of a better version of yourself? You, only better in every way. You should try this new product, it's called The Substance. IT CHANGED MY LIFE…. What could possibly go wrong?”