AMERICAN FICTION, POOR THINGS, and THE HOLDOVERS platform releases | Original non-series movies | Where we are now | January 26 to 28, 2024 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: January 26 to 28, 2024
For the 2nd weekend in a row, there’s no new studio wide release. January will finish with only four studio titles: Mean Girls, The Beekeeper, Night Swim, and The Book of Clarence. That's roughly half of a healthy pace of studio openers.
1) American Fiction, Poor Things, and The Holdovers platform releases
- Three of this year’s Awards films were released in gradual steps before hitting a wide release. This weekend, it’s American Fiction going wide. Here is what the numbers look like for the first weekend when these movies expand to over 1,000 screens:
These are sensational, elite movies. All three are playing extremely well and according to form. They’ll continue to do solid business between now and the Academy Awards.
2) Original non-series movies in 2023
- We’ve had a strong showing of original, non-series movies in 2023.
In recent years, original wide releases earned between 18% and 23% of the total box office. In 2023, they rose back to their highs after weakening just before the pandemic. They are up 5 percentage points in 2023. That might sound small, but it’s significant — it’s a billion dollar swing:
- In the strong years, there is always a juggernaut picture that drives the category. In 2023 it was Oppenheimer (currently $953m), in 2018 it was Bohemian Rhapsody ($904m), and in 2017 it was Coco ($807m).
Franchise series pics still account for the majority of ticket sales; they generate 77% to 82% of worldwide BO. But original films move the industry forward with new stories and new ideas.
It’s too early to know how 2024 is going to look — many of the films aren’t even finished yet. It will take one or two titles going on a very long run to maintain 2023’s pace.
3) Where we are now
- In spite of the threadbare January lineup, the industry is showing strength in three areas:
Several December titles are having outstanding runs: Wonka is at $550m worldwide in its 7th week (est. budget $125m); Anyone But You is crossing $110m in its 6th week (est. budget $25m); Boys in the Boat is slowing down with $48m in its 5th week (est. budget $40m); and The Iron Claw is finishing with over $34m in its 6th week (est. budget $16m). Those are excellent numbers.
The Beekeeper is a hit. Its final BO should get to approx. $150m worldwide (est. budget of $40m). This is not a routine action thriller; those movies disappear fast. The Beekeeper is series material.
As noted, the Awards movies are having a very good season.
- 2024 is going to be uneven during the first half, with depressed periods like this, before firming up during the summer and fall. The actors' strike ended 11 weeks ago. The industry cannot snap its fingers and deliver giant movies on a dime. It takes many months to make and release the biggest projects. They will return over time and the release schedule will fill out.
Next weekend, Matthew Vaughn's Argylle opens from Apple/Universal; Angel Studios brings more episodes of The Chosen to the big screen; and we'll have January BO numbers and comparisons.