MINIONS: THE RISE OF GRU opening | June and year-to-date 2022 moviegoing vs. 2019 | Animation | Foreign | July 1 to 3, 2022 weekend
Opening weekend numbers, charts and commentary
The current weekend: July 1 to 3, 2022 (July 4th holiday)
1) Minions: The Rise of Gru opening
- This is a sensational opening. The first Minions broke new ground when it spun off and opened +39% above Despicable Me 2. It’s the only animation spin-off to have performed better than its predecessor, ever, and it’s doing it again with a stronger opening than Despicable 3. Only five animation series have reached five episodes, and Despicable Me/Minions is certain to join Shrek/Puss in Boots as the only two series to reach six.
- Family animation, more than any other genre, has struggled to find its footing during the pandemic. Between 2012 and 2019, we had a run of some of the most critically and commercially successful animation series in the history of the business, but we haven’t had anything like that during the last two and a half years. This weekend, Minions is breaking through and big animation is back in business:
2) June and year-to-date 2022 moviegoing vs. 2019
- During the four weeks of June, the domestic box office was down -8.4% compared with June 2019. This is a terrific result, and by far the best month at the box office since the pandemic began. The June movies were strong (Jurassic, Lightyear, Elvis, Black Phone, and Top Gun holdover), and they held their own against June 2019 (Toy Story 4, Godzilla 5, Rocketman, Secret Life of Pets 2, Men in Black 4, and Aladdin holdover).
- Year-to-date, the box office is down -32.4%. The number of wide releases in 2022 continues to trail 2019, and the margin grew in June: there were only 5 wide releases this past month, versus 10 in 2019. Year-to-date, the difference is now 45 to 68. In July, there will be 11 wide releases, one more than in July 2019, but still, it's possible the total count in 2022 will fall short of 100, compared with 138 in 2019. Much will depend on the year-end, when the awards season heats up and movies step up their release plans:
- We are continuing to keep an eye on two areas:
a) Animation. In 2019, the genre generated $4.57 billion worldwide, which was 16.6% of total box office. Since then, it’s been running low… until this weekend. In 2019, Frozen 2 made $1.45 billion, and Toy Story 4 made $1.07b — two billion dollar-plus movies. Thus far during the pandemic, the biggest releases have been Sing 2 ($408m) and Sonic 2 ($401m). With Minions re-energizing family moviegoing, we also hope to see the launch of a new juggernaut animation series, which we haven’t had in five years.
b) International is not itself. Jurassic is the first release in China in a long time, and it will finish with about $125m, down from $258m for the previous Jurassic. We know that Russia and Ukraine are out, and the dollar is generally strong, but there's a malaise beyond that. Disney/Pixar has always done well overseas, averaging 61.1% of worldwide, but Lightyear, in addition to its domestic problems, is so far doing only around 40% abroad. And Top Gun is a smash everywhere, but its foreign business is less than the first film’s 49.5% of worldwide, 36 years later.
- Enough about the challenges. June 2022 was excellent, and July’s Minions, Thor and Nope should chase July 2019's Spider-Man: Far from Home, Lion King and Once Upon a Time in... This is a different looking business today: lean and profitable, and for now, smaller, but growing again. Creatively, the films are delivering, and if they continue to do that (the second half has Avatar, Black Panther, Shazam! and Halloween, et al.), then 2022 should finish close to down -25% versus 2019, with a strong second half of the year, after a slow start.