INDIANA JONES AND THE DIAL OF DESTINY opening | RUBY GILLMAN, TEENAGE KRAKEN opening | June 2023 and year-to-date moviegoing | June 30 to July 2, 2023 (July 4th weekend)
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: June 30 to July 2, 2023 (July 4th weekend)
1) Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny opening
- This is a weak opening for a 5th episode action adventure. Audience ratings are good, while critics reviews are lukewarm. Indiana Jones is one of seven action adventure series to generate five films. Most action adventure series finish by episode five, and that’s happening here.
During the last 25 years, action adventures have been eclipsed on the big screen by superheroes and modern action films, with more inventive stories, visual effects and set-pieces:
- Dial of Destiny was expensive to make (est. $295m, before marketing). It should do well overseas and generate equal or better value across ancillary markets for the indefinite future, plus income from merchandise and theme parks. Movies are budgeted with all revenue streams in mind. During its lifespan, which does not have an end-date, the film will recover its costs.
2) Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken opening
- This is a weak opening for a DreamWorks Animation release. DreamWorks has had an uneven run since the pandemic, from Puss in Boots 2 ($481m worldwide) to Spirit Untamed 2 ($42.6m). Ruby Gillman cost an est. $70m to produce:
3) June 2023 and year-to-date moviegoing
- In June, the domestic box office was down -9.8% compared with June’s 2019/2018/2017 pre-pandemic average. Year-to-date, the BO is now down -21.6%. June had extreme ups and downs, but the total figure is the second best month this year. (If we could continue the year at a -10% pace, it would be an excellent result, but that is unlikely.)
Year-to-date, we're back to where we were in April, after dipping in May (the Avengers films are going to do that until we're past comparisons to them in May 2019 and 2018). This year’s BO continues to run well ahead of 2022 (+19.9%).
June moviegoing was led by Spider-Verse 2 and Transformers 6, plus holdovers Little Mermaid, Guardians 3, and Fast & Furious 10. The Flash and Elemental disappointed, but they still contributed significantly to the month's total activity:
- In June, the wide release count was 8 (on 1,000+ domestic screens). That's a fair number, but the overall count so far in 2023 remains close to 2019 (61 versus 69), and it's far ahead of 2022 (44).
We still see approx. 130 wide releases by year-end, including 54 franchise titles, which is approaching normal (2019 had 58 franchise films, 2018 had 62). The 130 figure will depend on how many fall and year-end awards titles play wide, and how many indie titles drop into the schedule in the second half.
- Next month, July has a good mix of genres, from this weekend's action adventure (Indy Jones), to horror (Insidious 5), to sex comedy (Joy Ride), to big action (Mission: Impossible 7), to Crunchyroll anime (Psycho-Pass Providence), to fantasy/romantic comedy (Barbie), to historical drama/thriller (Oppenheimer), to family horror/adventure (Haunted Mansion).
What this July does not have is a big new superhero or animation release. Past Julys had those (Spider-Man, Ant-Man, Hotel Transylvania). Animation picks up again on August 2 with Ninja Turtles 7, and superheroes return on August 18 with Blue Beetle/DC Comics.
Barbie and Oppenheimer are important July movies. Both are new stories and big productions from interesting filmmakers with original ideas and sharp points-of-view. The summer is always full of sequels and remakes. Audiences are ready for the next big thing, and these movies look like they are going to be it.