HAUNTED MANSION opening | TALK TO ME opening | July 2023 and year-to-date moviegoing | July 28 to 30, 2023 weekend

Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary

Jul 30, 2023

1) Haunted Mansion Opening

- This is a fair opening for a Disney film based on one of their theme park attractions. There have been six of these movies, including an earlier version of Haunted Mansion starring Eddie Murphy that opened to $24.3m in November 2003. This weekend figure is just shy of average for a PG-13 adventure-horror-comedy hybrid:

Haunted Mansion cost an est. $150m to make. As noted for the recent Indiana Jones sequel, Disney gets additional value from its productions for its other divisions — in this case, the film promotes its theme parks. But setting that aside, this is going to be a long climb to break-even.

2) Talk to Me opening

- This is an excellent opening for an indie horror pic made on a micro-budget of $4.5m. Following an enthusiastic reception at Sundance, critics reviews are sensational and audience ratings are enthusiastic. This is a great start — the film has already earned back its production budget:

Talk to Me was made by two first-time Australian filmmakers who started on YouTube. The horror genre continues to be a very creative space for new and developing talent.
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3) July 2023 and year-to-date moviegoing

- In July, the domestic box office was up +1.4% compared with July’s 2019/2018/2017 pre-pandemic average. Year-to-date, the BO is now down -17.6%. July would have been a lukewarm month, but then Barbie and Oppenheimer arrived, moviegoing exploded, and within one week, July caught up to its pre-pandemic average.

Sound of Freedom and Insidious also did well during the month. Mission: Impossible and Indy Jones disappointed, but they added to the BO totals, as did holdovers Elemental, Spider-Verse, Transformers, No Hard Feelings and Asteroid City. The mix of genres is excellent.
Asteroid City - $46.1m worldwide to date, more int’l markets coming

During the last four months, the BO is down -9.3% compared with the pre-pandemic average, and that includes May, which is an impossibly difficult month to compare to because Avengers 3 and 4 were so big in May 2018 and 2019. But now we have Barbie:

Release Count

- The July wide release count was 8 (on 1,000+ domestic screens). That's similar to past years. The total count so far in 2023 remains close to 2019 (69 versus 76), and it's well ahead of 2022 (51).

The writers' and actors' strikes are going to impact the box office. A handful of release dates have already been pushed back. Over time, the hard-won momentum that the industry is so rightfully thrilled about is going to weaken, particularly if the strikes persist into September and beyond. For movies that need their cast for major publicity, distributors have no choice but to pull the dates:
- Imagine Barbie without Margot Robbie and Ryan Gosling doing photo ops, interviews, promotional events and screenings, striking a new pose every time you refresh your news feed;
- Or Sound of Freedom without Jim Caviezel rallying his fan base, “We have to do a lot more. And we got to start with Donald Trump.... he’s got to be in there because he’s going to go after the traffickers.... I mean, I’m still Jesus, but he’s the new Moses. Pharaoh, let my children go free.” (Fox & Friends, 7/20/23)
You can’t buy marketing that’s more authentic than that.

August 2023

- August traditionally slows as summer ends and kids start going back to school, but Barbie and Oppenheimer are on fire and will play through the month. Their weekday numbers have been as amazing as their weekends. August’s new releases include Ninja Turtles 7, The Meg 2, Strays, Blue Beetle, and Gran Turismo, et al.

Right now, moviegoing is generating a rare kind of excitement, and it's happening around the world. But at the very moment when the industry is moving forward again, we’re looking out over another precipice. If the strikes continue, all filmed entertainment is going to get hurt, both moviegoing and streaming. The talent is going to sit out the marketing; new productions are going to be delayed; and release schedules and TV lineups are going to be weaker.

[Methodology note: For our box office comparisons, we take the complete weeks of each month (each week runs Friday to Thursday), and we line up the same weeks across the years, so the comparisons cover the same # of weeks, same # of days and same day mix. That’s the most accurate approach for these comparisons.]