FLIGHT RISK | PRESENCE | BRAVE THE DARK openings | The Academy best picture contenders and the Oscars TV show | January 24 to 26, 2025 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: January 24 to 26, 2025
1) Flight Risk opening
- This is a good opening for an original action thriller, at somewhat above average levels for the genre. The film itself is generating a soft response: Critics' reviews are poor, and the audience score is flat (a C CinemaScore).
This is straight-forward action genre material on a manageable budget of est. $25 million. Directed by Mel Gibson, Mark Wahlberg brings value to the campaign and business should be good in all parts of the world. Moviegoers are showing up, but they’re not impressed with the movie:
2) Presence opening
- Another weekend, another interesting horror film. This one is written by David Koepp, directed by Steven Soderbergh, and was shot in 11 days for $2 million. At that cost, it should earn its production budget back this week.
Mr. Soderbergh is a critics’ darling and reviews are excellent; however, audiences are lukewarm (a C+ CinemaScore, common for the genre). The story is about a family who moves into a new home and realizes they're not alone. It's nothing new, and the opening on a limited number of screens is weak for an original horror film. It was extremely inexpensive to make, and it will still be profitable:
3) Brave the Dark opening
- This is a fair start for an inspirational drama. These are small pictures that do minimal business overseas, but they serve a vibrant domestic niche. The distributor, Angel Studios (Sound of Freedom), knows how to connect with their audience.
It’s about a homeless teen and a high school drama teacher who helps him. It’s uplifting and feel-good and audiences like it (an A CinemaScore). With positive word-of-mouth, inspirational dramas tend to hold up in subsequent weeks — you can see it in the domestic multiple:
4) The Academy best picture contenders and the Oscars TV show
- We want to show you this chart of the Academy best picture contenders over the last eight years, their popularity at the BO, and the Oscars TV ratings. On average, the TV ratings for the two years after the pandemic are down -28% compared with the three years before the pandemic. (-28% coincides with the drop in domestic movie attendance during the same period; the BO is doing better because tickets cost more.)
The ratings had a good bounce in 2018, and a small bounce last year, thanks to the nominees. As a group, this year’s nominees are not especially strong at the BO, but the TV audience wants to see stars, and Timothée Chalamet, Ariana Grande, Zoe Saldaña, Demi Moore, et al., are a strong group:
- Normally, we would expect this year's Oscars TV ratings to stay in the same range as the last two years, but this year has a powerful variable, and depending on how it’s handled, it can be a difference-maker. TV audiences love live musical performances, and this year’s nominees have some gems:
Will Selena Gomez and Zoe Saldaña perform their songs from Emilia Pérez? (Two of the songs are nominated.)
Will Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo perform the songs from Wicked? (None of the songs are nominated because they were written for the stage.)
Will Bob Dylan appear and do his best impersonation of Timothée Chalamet doing Bob Dylan? (Who cares when the songs were were written.)
- Live performances like these would electrify the show, set it apart from all other entertainment on TV, and help lift the ratings and the movies.
Our last two posts were:
ONE OF THEM DAYS | WOLF MAN openings | Horror 2024 final notes | Where we are now | January 17 to 19, 2025 Martin Luther King, Jr. weekend here
DEN OF THIEVES 2: PANTERA | BETTER MAN openings | The year-end rally | The Golden Globes | Rotten Tomatoes update | January 10 to 12, 2025 weekend here