DUNE: PART TWO opening | THE CHOSEN: SEASON 4 EPISODES 7-8 opening | February and year-to-date 2024 box office | March 1 to 3, 2024 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: March 1 to 3, 2024
1) Dune: Part Two opening
- This is an outstanding opening for a science fiction episode 2. Good science fiction is about the tension between being human and the mysteries of the universe. The film is balancing those elements extremely well, with help from a sprawling international cast that includes...
Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Austin Butler, Florence Pugh, Rebecca Ferguson, Christopher Walken, Léa Seydoux, Stellan Skarsgård, Jason Momoa, Dave Bautista, Charlotte Rampling, Josh Brolin and Javier Bardem, among others.
- Dune: Part One would have certainly opened to better than $41m, had moviegoing conditions in October 2021 been healthier, and without simultaneous streaming. But even if Part One had opened to $60m, this is an excellent return:
- The superhero numbers in the chart say a lot about current tastes. With a few exceptions (Star Wars, Avatar), superheroes surpassed science fiction in popularity during their dominant run. In their heyday, superheroes would have scoffed at vulnerable human characters like these. Superheroes don't need gizmos on their nose to survive. They can fly through any atmospheric conditions. They can do whatever they want. They're omnipotent.
But look what's happening now. Audiences are connecting with these human, vulnerable faces, while superheroes have grown self-absorbed and detached. Dune is leading with its humanity, while superheroes are having a hard time holding on to theirs.
(Note: The nose gizmos capture and recycle moisture from exhaled breath, which is necessary on planet Arrakis, because it's dry up there.)
2) The Chosen: Season 4 Episodes 7-8 opening
- This is the third set of Chosen Season 4 Episodes we've had in four weeks. The opening is similar to the previous installment; it’s a bit below average for a faith-based sequel.
Altogether, the three Chosen releases will total around $32m in box office, almost entirely from the domestic market. Not bad for reconstituted television material:
3) February and year-to-date 2024 box office
- For the record, the February domestic box office was down -52% compared with the pre-pandemic average (the average of February 2020/2019/2018), and it was -29% below February 2023. Year-to-date, 2024 is now down -49% compared with pre-pandemic levels, and down -22% compared with 2023:
Bob Marley has done well for a musical biography; Demon Slayer 3 connected with the anime crowd; and The Chosen series rallied the faithful, but the big films missed (Argylle and Madame Web). Pre-pandemic Februarys had titles like Black Panther 1 ($1.35b worldwide) and How to Train Your Dragon 3 ($522m) — juggernauts.
Release Count and average opening
- There were 10 new wide releases during the February 4-week period (on 1,000+ domestic screens; we’re not counting re-releases). The domestic openings averaged $6.1m. That's weak:
Overall
- As noted, what happened in January and February was about the release schedule. It was not another existential moviegoing crisis.
This weekend's Dune and next weekend’s Kung Fu Panda 4 should turn the page on 2024’s cold start, and the schedule looks stronger going forward. Pockets of the business continue to do well with specific audiences. But overall, it's going to take time to refill the pipeline and adjust to shifting tastes.