BOB MARLEY: ONE LOVE opening | MADAME WEB opening | THE CHOSEN SEASON 4 EPISODES 4-6 opening | Where we are now | February 16 to 18, 2024 Presidents' Day weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: February 16 to 18, 2024 Presidents’ Day weekend
1) Bob Marley: One Love opening
- This is an excellent opening for a musical biography, at well above average levels for the genre. Musical biographies are consistently good performers at the box office, and this is another success. Critics reviews are soft but audience scores are great (an A CinemaScore). These are very strong numbers:
During the last three years, Elvis ($287.7m worldwide), Rocketman ($195.3m) and to a lesser extent I Wanna Dance With Somebody ($59.8m) found their audiences. Back to Black about Amy Winehouse is scheduled for May, and next year we'll have Michael Jackson and the Bee Gees.
2) Madam Web opening
- This is a weak opening for a superhero character spin-off. Audiences do not care for the movie (C+ CinemaScore), and critics are panning it.
Once upon a time you could pluck a character out of a popular superhero movie and make a hit film about them. Superhero universes were expanding. That was more than five years ago:
Are superheroes finished? Let's revisit that on July 26 when Deadpool 3 opens, and on October 4 when Joker: Folie á Deux opens. Those movies feature original, multi-dimensional, and well-liked heroes (perhaps anti-heroes). That's what it takes, not minor and tangential storylines.
3) The Chosen Season 4 Episodes 4-6 opening
- Another weekend, another compilation of The Chosen Season 4 episodes. This is a fair opening (assuming the final numbers do not jump), with a relatively big drop from the previous Chosen episodes just two weeks ago. Angel Studios is releasing three of these compilations over four weeks, all based on television material:
The last of the Season 4 episodes opens two weeks from now, on February 29 (Episodes 7-8). Has any distributor ever done anything like this? While Season 4 is starting to show some wear, it’s still impressive.
4) Where we are now
- The January and February box office has been dismal. Specific genre pictures continue to work, but the business has been without the kind of event films that get broad audiences out to the movies and sustain momentum.
That will change in two weeks with Dune: Part 2, and then the schedule picks up in March and April with Kung Fu Panda 4, Ghostbusters 5, Godzilla x Kong 2, Cabrini (from Angel Studios and Alejandro Monteverde who directed Sound of Freedom), and Challengers with Zendaya.
- This isn’t another industry existential crisis — we had those and we’re past them. Moviegoing has proven itself during the last couple of years. This is a release schedule, product-driven problem that will take some time to fix.