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BLACK PANTHER: WAKANDA FOREVER opening | Superheroes in 2023 | Moviegoing and the last two recessions | November 11 to 13, 2022 weekend

Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary

David A. Gross

Nov 13, 2022

1) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever opening

- This is a sensational opening. Superhero follow-ups generally come back strong; on average they open higher than the first episode. This opening is close to Black Panther 1, but let's not quibble. Depending on where the final figure comes in, this is going to be among the best three superhero 2nd episode starts of all time (Avengers 2 opened to $191.3m, and Dr. Strange 2 to $187.4m) — it’s fantastic.

- Business is especially good for a mid-November opening. The five biggest films in the category had May/summer dates, which is a 10% to 15% advantage. Wakanda, as well as Black Adam, had to overcome difficult pandemic-related production and planning obstacles to get out. They made it. Reviews and audience scores are excellent — Wakanda should dominate moviegoing through Thanksgiving and into December:

- Internationally, the Black Panther series has been a hit in all markets around the world, although foreign business has been somewhat muted compared with other superhero titles. This time, Wakanda will have to do it without the help of China and Russia, where Black Panther 1 did well when the Chinese market was more open and Russia was not waging a war (BP1 made $105m in China, and $19.3m in Russia).

2) Superheroes in 2023

- Part of our optimism about next year’s box office growth is based on the lineup of superhero movies on the 2023 schedule. Currently, there are 10 titles: six sequels (Ant-Man 3, Shazam! 2, Guardians of the Galaxy 3, Captain Marvel 2, Ninja Turtles reboot, Aquaman 2), and four series launches (Madam Web, The Flash, Blue Beetle, Kraven the Hunter). Assuming average performance for each film, it’s a strong group:

3) Moviegoing and the last two recessions

- If, in fact, we have a recession or an economic downturn during the next 12 months, moviegoing should weather the adverse conditions well. Labor markets and unemployment are coming from strength. Ticket prices are rising with inflation, but most of that is offset by rising wages. Moviegoing is still a good value and inexpensive compared with other out-of-home entertainment options.

- Here are the patterns during the last two recessions: