AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM, MIGRATION, ANYONE BUT YOU, and THE IRON CLAW openings | Where we are now | December 22 to 24, 2023 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: December 22 to 24, 2023
1) Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom opening
- This is a weak start for the 2nd episode of a superhero series. Historically, these are giant movies: On average, they open +8% better than the first episode, to $85.6m. This 3-day weekend is less than half of Aquaman 1's start, at below average levels.
This year, Christmas Eve landing on Sunday night is a drawback for all movies, before business picks up on Christmas day and next week. The first film went on a strong run during the same year-end holidays in 2018. But again, these are soft levels:
- Overseas was a particular strength for Aquaman 1, especially in China, where it made a sensational $292m in 2018. Today, the Chinese market is a fraction of what it was for American movies, and Russia is also a loss for the film. Overall, foreign business should still be good, just not outstanding.
This result and the recent Marvels release are stunning. The Marvels will finish with approx. $206m worldwide, or down -82% from the first movie. Capt. Marvel and Aquaman 1 were very well-liked films (A and A- CinemaScores, respectively), and each finished with more than $1.1 billion worldwide.
There were two excellent superhero performances in 2023 (Guardians of the Galaxy and Spider-Verse), one lukewarm performance (Ant-Man), and three DC Comics flops. The genre is by no means dead — 2024 has Deadpool 3 (Jul 24), Joker 2 (Oct 4), and Venom 3 (Nov 8), and at some point we'll have Spider-Man and Spider-Verse sequels — but the growth has stopped. We’re in a different world now.
2) Migration opening
- This 3-day opening is roughly average for an original, single-episode animation title, and it’s below average for the launch of a new animation series. Reviews are good.
The school holidays will provide a major boost next week and these pics are solid performers abroad:
- 2023 has been a good year for animation. It was the stories with "edge" that resonated with audiences, including Super Mario, Spider-Verse, and Elemental. The happily-ever-after fairy tale, Wish, did not connect.
3) Anyone But You opening
- This is a fair start for a romantic comedy. 26 year-old Sidney Sweeney has had a lot of success on HBO’s Euphoria and The White Lotus — her big-screen debut should pick up this week. The production cost was a modest $25m, so if the movie plays on TV screens around the world, it will make money:
We’ve had eight romantic comedies in 2023. No Hard Feelings starring Jennifer Lawrence finished with good numbers ($87.2m worldwide), but the other titles missed.
4) The Iron Claw opening
- This is a good opening for a sports drama. These are small movies and this opening is a bit above average for the genre. The budget was inexpensive (approx. $16m) and reviews are excellent. Foreign potential is limited for sports dramas — you can see it here:
There were eight sports dramas in 2023. Creed III ($275.2m worldwide) and Air ($90.1m) did well, helped by their big casts, while nothing else grossed more than $7.7m worldwide. The Boys in the Boat, directed by George Clooney, opens tomorrow on Christmas Day.
5) Where we are now
- 2023 is finishing on a low note. The slide we saw in November is continuing this month. Wonka, a handful of genre and niche pictures, and several Awards and art films are doing well, but in total business is quiet compared with past Decembers, which had a Star Wars, or a Jumanji, or the first Aquaman.
Next weekend we'll cover the Christmas Day movies (Color Purple, Boys in the Boat, and Ferrari), as well as December box office numbers and summary points for the year. Audience tastes are evolving, but because of the long and grueling pandemic and strikes, movies have not caught up.