IF, THE STRANGERS: CHAPTER 1, and BACK TO BLACK openings | Where we are now | May 17 to 19, 2024 weekend
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: May 17 to 19, 2024
1) IF opening
- This is a good opening for a live-action/animation hybrid, at above average levels for the genre. Critics' reviews are fair, but these movies are crowd-pleasers and the audience CinemaScore is what counts (an A). The film should translate in foreign markets and do well abroad:
Live-action/animation hybrids are a good idea. For mainstream audiences, hybrids stretch the imagination and enrich the story. They broaden the demographic appeal across adults and parents, and kids and teenagers.
During the last 20 years, we’ve had Alvin and the Chipmunks, Sonic the Hedgehog, Paddington, Peter Rabbit, Christopher Robin and The Smurfs, et al. The Sonic series is especially strong right now. But the ground-breaker was Who Framed Roger Rabbit? in 1988. That movie was way ahead of its time and finished with $329.8m worldwide, or a billion dollars today.
IF’s opening is not at the top of the list — it ranks #6 out of 16 live-action/animation hybrids with series potential. But it’s still above average and a good start.
2) The Strangers: Chapter 1 opening
- This is a fair opening for the 3rd outing of this horror story. The film did not get much help from Strangers #2, which was distributed in 2018 by the beleaguered indie Aviron. It finished with $31m worldwide, which was a -62% drop from the 1st title. This is a rebuilding situation, and this weekend is up on the last opening:
This picture is a prequel to the 1st Strangers, released in 2008 by Rogue Pictures when it was part of Universal's Focus Features. The original movie cost $9m and made $82.4m worldwide.
Chapter 1 is the 1st of a trilogy directed by Renny Harlan, and all three chapters have already been filmed. At a cost of est. $8.5m, it’s going to be profitable and it gives the series something to build on.
3) Back to Black opening
- This musical biography is a narrow national release in No. America. The $30m production is a hit abroad, especially in the UK and Europe (Amy Winehouse was British; foreign BO is already $36.6m). Here, critics' reviews are soft, but audience scores are very good (a B+ CinemaScore):
Musical bios are a sturdy genre and they generally follow the popularity and footprint of the artist, with the exception of Bohemian Rhapsody, which became a worldwide phenomenon in 2018 ($903.7m). Elvis ($287.7m), Straight Outta Compton (NWA, $201.6m), Rocketman (Elton John, $195.3m), Walk the Line (Johnny Cash, $186.8m), and Bob Marley ($177.2m) — all strong.
Following her death, Amy Winehouse’s music is still highly-acclaimed and she has a dedicated fan base. In the U.S., her appeal isn’t as broad as the artists mentioned above, and so this domestic BO isn’t on the level of the other titles.
4) Where we are now
- Thus far, the early summer lineup is subdued. The industry is waiting for an over-performer to beat expectations and break out.
Right now, total business is better than what we saw in April, and it should continue with Mad Max Furiosa and Garfield next week. Summer school holidays start over the next two weeks, and that should rev the market.
But we continue to trail pre-pandemic BO levels by a wide margin, and each weekend is hit or miss compared with 2023 business levels. Comparisons are not going to get easier as we move into the heart of summer.