DESPICABLE ME 4 | MAXXXINE | SOUND OF HOPE: THE STORY OF POSSUM TROT openings | Inspirational films update | July 5 to 7, 2024 weekend (July 4th holiday)
Opening weekend box office, charts and commentary
The current weekend: July 5 to 7, 2024 (July 4th holiday)
1) Despicable Me 4 opening
- This is an outstanding opening for the 4th episode of an animation series, ranking only behind Toy Story 4 ($120.9m in 2019) and just ahead of Shrek 4 ($70.8m in 2010). Pending final numbers, the weekend start is down only -13% from the series high — that's excellent.
The last Despicable Me in 2017 did particularly well overseas, with healthy conditions in China ($158.2m) and Russia ($26.0m). That kind of business is no longer possible in those markets (Inside Out 2 is finishing with approx. $25m in China, and Russia is closed), and it will impact the international figures:
- Despicable Me is holding up extremely well against the inevitable downward pressure that every series faces. Animation has a history of slowing or stopping after episode 4:
Ice Age 5 finished with $408.6m worldwide after #4 made $877.2m. Lightyear earned $226.4m following Toy Story 4's $1.07b. The Smurfs pics made $564m, $348m and $197m; next up is a musical version. And Shrek and Alvin and the Chipmunks stopped altogether after #4.
- Animation stories do not have the longevity of horror, sci-fi or action series, which can renew and repeat indefinitely. Animation characters and jokes tend to run thin with repetition, and recasting voices is not as effective as recasting screen actors. Despicable Me and the Minions spinoffs are wearing very well — it’s impressive.
2) MaXXXine opening
- This is the 3rd film in the X/Pearl/MaXXXine slasher horror series, written, directed, produced and edited by indie/auteur filmmaker Ti West. It’s not in the league of other big horror franchises, but the cost of each of Mr. West’s films is $1 million. This is low-budget filmmaking at its best.
Before this, X finished with $14.7m, and then Pearl made $9.8m. The pictures do not travel overseas, but at these costs and with good ancillary business ahead, this is theatrical success:
3) Sound of Hope: The Story of Possum Trot opening
- This is a soft opening for an inspirational drama. Critics' reviews are very good and audience ratings are outstanding (an A+ CinemaScore). The genre makes very little money abroad — these movies are made for the domestic market:
4) Inspirational films update
- Inspirational/faith-based films represent less than 1% of Hollywood’s worldwide box office, with the exception of last year when Sound of Freedom and Jesus Revolution pushed the genre to 1.9% of total.
While the total number of wide releases is still recovering from the pandemic and strikes, the number of inspirational titles jumped in 2023, and the list will grow again this year (we expect one or two additional titles in 2024) — in the chart below.
Outside of Sound of Freedom ($260.6m) and Jesus Revolution ($54.3m), the box office ceiling for these movies has been around $25m worldwide, with little contribution from overseas. This is a vibrant domestic niche market that works because production costs are low: